Legacies on the Line: Paris Major Clinch Scenarios - Europe, APAC, and South America
We’re entering the final weekend of the regular season, and it’s time to find our teams for the Paris Major, and the 2026 World Championship! There are three regions left, and there are twenty teams mathematically still in the running. Let’s get into all of the ins and outs to find our top squads of Europe, South America, and APAC. You can check out the full scenarios courtesy of statistician dRekt here:
South America
South America is all but locked, as it only has four teams mathematically still in the running. FURIA and MIBR are the front runners, and BS+ Competition and “Banana” are on the outside looking in, needing a regional win and some help to book their flights to Paris.
FURIA
FURIA needed a roster change if they wanted to get back to the number one spot of South America. They made the blockbuster move and did just that, but haven’t been able to escape MIBR, who continue to stay in the running for SAM1.
That being said, they’ve done more than enough to be playing at the Paris Major and at Worlds. FURIA just need a top 6 appearance or better to clinch, which could be done on Friday if they go 2-0 in groups.
MIBR
Made in Brazil have leapfrogged Team Secret for a share of first place in South America, and Reysbull has once again established himself at the top of the SAM Mountain.
The squad of El Toro himself, alongside Aztromik and Sad, won Open #5 to tie FURIA in both split points and overall points. They too, just need to win two straight games to go dancing in France, as a top 5-6th place finish secures their spot.
BS+ Competition
The Zebras turned back the clock at the start of the split, making their first RLCS Main Event appearance as an organization since the 2021-22 season.
The two players alongside Kv1— Crn and Wisty— have made a name for themselves in SAM, but because of the two team limit on SAM LAN teams, they haven’t been able to quite break through to the world stage just yet.
This split they have two top 4 finishes, with both exits coming at the hands of FURIA. Because of that, they need to win the regional and they need either FURIA or MIBR to miss the playoffs if they want any hope of getting to their first major. Otherwise, they’ll be forced to wait around for the Last Chance Qualifier to try and get to Worlds.
Banana (formerly Team Secret)
With Swiftt being snatched up in the offseason, Secret just didn’t have the firepower to get to the Boston Major. They made a gamble, and picked up Suco to replace one of the faces of the Team Secret Rocket League division in Kv1.
The gamble has yet to pay off, as Secret rattled off 4th and 5-6th place finishes to start the second split. Because of this, they need a regional win and FURIA and MIBR to go 0-2 in the group stage to qualify. Otherwise, it will likely mean a showdown with BS+ in the LCQ to find out who will represent SAM as the third team at Worlds.
APAC
Three teams are in the running for APAC’s lone spot, with KINOTROPE, TSM, and Northstar Gaming all fighting for the crown and a trip to Paris.
KINOTROPE
Maxeew, Kash, and Furlashh are the shock frontrunners for split 2 of RLCS 2026. The squad capitalized off of a huge upset of TSM in the semifinals of Open #4 and went on to win the regional, giving them a 10 point lead over the perennial APAC LAN contender.
TSM cut into that points lead a bit with a win in Open #5, but KINOTROPE managed to place in the finals, limiting the amount of ground that TSM was able to make up.
KINOTROPE controls their own destiny, as a regional win clinches the Major. They can also qualify in any other playoff placement, provided they outplace TSM, and Northstar don’t win the regional.
If they miss the playoffs, they can qualify with a TSM 7-8th exit and a Northstar 3-4th exit.
TSM
Since qualifying for his first RLCS LAN in the 2024 season at Copenhagen, Sphinx has only missed out on two of the seven possible live tournaments within the league (Major 2 of that season, and then the 2024 World Champion). His streak of 4 straight RLCS LAN appearances is in danger, as TSM is sitting 4 points shy of APAC’s lone LAN spot.
Luckily for the boys in black and white, they still control their destiny. A first place in Open #6 will clinch the Major for them. They can clinch with a second place finish, a KINOTROPE 5-6th exit, and Northstar not winning.
A top 4 finish for TSM means they need KINOTROPE to miss the playoffs completely, and for Northstar to go out top 4 as well. A 5-6th place finish for TSM means KINOTROPE needs to go out of groups without a series win and Northstar must miss the Grand Finals for TSM to make it to Paris.
An early crashout on Friday means that TSM will have no chance at Paris whatsoever.
Northstar Gaming
Lunar, Pengoli, and Taha are within striking distance of an APAC LAN berth, but they need some help. They are not in control of their own destiny. Even if they win the regional, they need KINOTROPE to finish 5-6th or worse, and TSM to finish 3-4th or worse.
If Northstar lose the Grand Final, they need KINOTROPE to go out in last place, and TSM to go out in 7-8th or worse. Northstar missing the final means they are automatically eliminated from Major contention.
Europe
Amidst a chaotic Europe second split, it’s still anyone’s chance to make major. 6 teams are in control of their own destiny, and everyone else needs a regional win and some serious help.
Team Vitality
The Bees are in pole position heading into Open #6. Despite being aided by a huge regional in Open #4, an early exit two weekends later has stunted their rise to the top. They can clinch the Major on Friday though, they just need to go 2-0 in Groups. They just need a 5-6th place finish or higher to lock themselves into Paris.
A 7-8th place exit can still lock them for Major 2, they just need one of the following to happen: Gentle Mates finish 7th-8th or worse, Karmine Corp finish 7th-8th or worse, Ninjas in Pyjamas finish 7th-8th or worse, Manchester City finish 3rd-4th or worse, or Kaydop Corp fail to win the event.
Vitality bombing out for a second regional in a row could put them in a sticky spot, but they’re able to qualify with some help no matter how they place.
Gentle Mates
Speaking of teams being eliminated early and then winning a regional, Gentle Mates have also done so this split! They weren’t able to make the playoffs, which gives Vitality the slight edge, but the Green Suits have a great chance to be dancing in Paris. A 3-4th place finish clinches it outright, but they can also qualify with help.
For example, a 5-6th place exit can still get them into the Major, provided that one of the following happens: Team Vitality finish 9th-12th or worse, Karmine Corp finish 7th-8th or worse, Ninjas in Pyjamas finish 7th-8th or worse, Manchester City finish 3rd-4th or worse, OR Kaydop Corp fail to win Open #6.
Despite the stumble in Open #4, there’s a chance for the reigning Major Champions to have a shot at another, come May.
Karmine Corp
The Blue Wall are in an identical spot as Gentle Mates, as they are also sitting at 21 points. There’s a solid chance that they’ll be in front of their home crowd, and they can clinch outright with a top 4 appearance.
Ninjas in Pyjamas
Well this is fun, it’s a 3-way tie for second place! NIP also need a top 4 finish to clinch outright, and have some easy scenarios if they go out a bit earlier than that.
All three of these teams have a tiny chance to qualify for Paris with a last place finish… it’s just not recommended.
Manchester City
In fifth place, it’s Man City Esports! After barely missing out on the org’s first RLCS Major with a tiebreaker loss to Geekay, Man City have a chance to right those wrongs this weekend. They can clinch outright with a Grand Finals appearance.
Some other scenarios include a top 4 finish, provided that four of the following happen: Team Vitality finish 13th-16th, Karmine Corp, NIP, and Gentle Mates finish 9th-12th or worse, and Kaydop Corp, Synergy, WIP, or Griddy Goose Fail to win the regional.
Kaydop Corp
The final team that can clinch outright is Kaydop Corp (Alpha54, Radosin, and MtzR). Unlike the rest of the field though, they need a regional win to get an outright bid to Paris. Any other finish and they need to outplace Man City by a few spots, and a whole lot of other stuff to go their way.
Outsiders
WIP Esports and Synergy can clinch the major with a regional win and one or more of the following: Vitality miss playoffs, Mates, KC, and NIP go out top 8, and Man City miss the Grand Final.
Griddy Goose can clinch the major with a regional win and one or more of: Vitality finish in dead last, Mates, KC, and NIP all miss the playoffs, and Man City miss the top 4.
Kalogeras can qualify for Paris, provided that they win the regional and two more of the following happen: Gentle Mates, KC, and NIP finish in last, Man City misses the top 6, and Kaydop Corp misses the finals.
Geekay Esports can make another run with a regional win, they just also need Man City to go out in 7-8th, and Kaydop Corp to finish 3-4th or worse.
Other longshots include: WYLDE, PCS Stride, NOVO, GHT, and Magnifico.
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BTF Esports
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