Paris Major Clinch Scenarios - Oceania, Sub-Saharan Africa, and MENA

There’s one last regional to play over in Oceania, MENA, and Sub-Saharan Africa, and there are some tightly contested races and shocking contenders for Paris in each of the three regions. Luckily, our resident statistician Derek (dRekt) Nilsen can help us parse through all of the scenarios!

Today, we’ll be discussing what you need to know about the Major and Worlds races for the key teams of each region.

Sub-Saharan Africa

With the two-thirds rule in place, there was an expected balance coming to SSA that I don’t think we ever really got. SSA is usually not a region with a ton of parity, and while a lot of people thought it would increase with one import being limited to a team, that has not been the case. There are two teams still alive for Paris and Worlds, but one clear favourite.

Five Fears

5F repped SSA in the Boston Major, with regional veteran Snowyy teaming up with a more recent local breakout in Gunz and former Suhhh standout TehQoz. While they weren’t too impressive in Boston, 0-3 in series and 0-9 in games, they have dominated their region, winning four of the five opens so far this season.

They will be looking for a “Five-Peat,” fitting given their name to solidify their spot at the last two LANs of the RLCS season.

All they need is a top 4 finish to escape the reach of the Pioneers, who have stayed on their heals with a few second place finishes. With a 24-1 regional series record, it’s all but locked up for the American organization,

Pioneers

Pioneers’ 2Die4 and Sweaty were the other two-thirds of the top all-local SSA roster last split, and with Snowyy going elsewhere to team with Gunz and TehQoz, they picked up former NAVI standout LuiisP to round out their roster.

They started off the season hot with a regional win and a 5-0 record, but have not beaten their regional rival, Five Fears, since.

Things looked a little more precarious for the Kansas City organization when they were stunned by Astronic Esports in the Group Stage of Open #4, but they were able to recover and at least make it back to the finals.

KCP are now 12 points behind Five Fears, and need to win the regional and an early exit from their big brother to keep their season alive. Five Fears getting knocked out in the Lower Semis could mean a tiebreaker if KCP goes on to win the event, but if Five Fears makes Top 4, it’s all over for the black and gold.

Oceania

Things are tight down under, especially with only one LAN spot available for the Major. The CB Bulldogs and PWR are currently tied for first with 26 points, and Wildcard is just behind with 24. The three outsiders of “nerve,” Take Flyte, and NOKAR Esport, are all mathematically in the running at the moment, but need a lot of help to get all the way in.

CB Bulldogs

An Open #5 Championship has vaulted the CB Bulldogs (Kaka, Hntr, Caleb) into a tie for first place as we head into the final stretch of the season. The orgless side finished in third in the race for Boston, and they need a major qualification if they want to pass PWR and Wildcard for the lone (for now) OCE Worlds spot.

To do this, the simplest way is to win the whole thing. A first-place finish in Open #6 clinches Paris and Worlds for CBB.

PWR

PWR may have the advantage in the running for both Paris and Worlds right now, but they still need a regional win to go to LAN. They only have an 11-point lead over CBB and a 10-point lead over Wildcard, so them losing at all opens the door for both of the teams below them, provided either other team wins the regional.

Wildcard

Third-place Wildcard will also need a regional win to clinch. After a top 6 at Worlds last season, Torsos and company have not been given a chance to reach higher heights, with their bid being stolen by PWR in the previous split.

The Rest of the Field

Nerve (Kekkles, Laxin, and Nerve) can clinch Paris with a regional win, and if PWR finish 7th-8th or lower, CBB finish 7-8th or lower, and Wildcard finishes 5-6th or lower.

Take Flyte (Amphis, Fades, and Scrub) need CBB and PWR to miss the playoffs, Wildcard to go out in 7-8th or lower, and a regional victory to make it to the second Major of the season.

Middle East & North Africa

With freak upsets happening left and right over in MENA, we’re bound to see at least one Cinderella story from the region in Paris, they just need to close it out this coming weekend.

R8 Esports

R8 Esports (Abdullah, Ghaazi, and M7md) rocked the region when they took out Team Falcons in the semifinals of Open #4 and ended up winning the event, and then they repeated history by knocking out Falcons again in the following semifinal.

They’re at the point now where they just need another semifinal appearance to book their spot at Major #2, and they can still clinch a tiebreaker if they go out 5-6th.

Some other scenarios are as follows:

R8 can clinch with a 5-6th place exit if Team Stallions don’t win the whole thing, OR if Twisted Minds miss the Grand Finals.

R8 can clinch with a 7-8th place exit if two of the following three things happen: Twisted Minds bow out in 5-6th, Team Stallions don’t win the Open, and Team Falcons don’t win the Open.

Twisted Minds

Twisted Minds (Nwpo, Trk511, M0nkey M00n) also stumbled at the starting line of split #2, but shook it off and won Open #5 to put themselves within striking distance of the Major.

They can clinch outright with a Grand Final appearance in the final MENA regional of the season, but can get help in any other lower placement.

For example, if they lose in the semifinals, they can still clinch as long as two of the following three things happen: Team Stallions don’t win the regional, Team Falcons don’t win the regional, and R8 Esports go out in 13-16th place.

Any exit before then still makes a qualification possible, but significantly tougher.

Team Falcons

Team Falcons need a miracle after two semifinal exits. They cannot clinch with a regional win outright, and if they miss the top 4, they are automatically out of contention for Paris.

If Team Falcons win the regional, they also need R8 Esports to miss the playoffs (or miss top 8), OR they need Twisted Minds to finish in 5-6th or worse.

If Team Falcons lose in the Grand Finals, they need Twisted Minds to go out 13-16th, AND they need Stallions, DOS, Everything, and RAFHA Esports to not win the regional.

Any finish worse than that, and they’re eliminated. This means that their elimination could come as soon as Friday, as Twisted would be able to make top 4 with a win.

Team Stallions

Stallions also shocked the MENA Rocket League world in Open #4, but because they failed to go on and win the event, they don’t have as much of a leg to stand on when compared with R8. Still, a clinch is possible, just not outright.

If Stallions win Open #6, they need R8 to finish in 7-8th or worse, OR they need Twisted Minds to finish 3-4th or worse.

If they finish second, they would need Twisted to finish 9-12th or worse, AND Falcons and Dos to not win the regional.

Any finish outside of a Grand Finals sends them to the LCQ.

Rest of the Field

There are three teams on the very far outside looking in. Those would be Dos, Everything, and RAFHA Esports. All three teams need a regional win and help, so we’ll cross that bridge if we get to it.