Opening cases in CS2 can be a lot of fun, but what are the odds you get anything good from them?
Of course, as is with all forms of gambling, the odds are stacked against you, and it really is unlikely you're ever going to get anything of true value.
Well, unless you open a lot of cases, that is. Oh, and unless you're just that lucky.
However, this begs the question: what actually are the odds when opening cases in CS2? Well, in this article, we'll answer that question and tell you all about the odds of opening cases in CS2.
Before analysing the drop rates and percentages of CS2 cases, it's important to understand the mechanics of CS2 skin wear.
Within CS2, there are a number of conditions you will unbox a weapon in.
Chief of those is Factory New. Factory New skins will have the highest visual quality, with minimal scratching on the design and with the colours being more vibrant than all other wears.
Next, is Minimal Wear. The difference between Factory New and Minimal Wear can be, well, minimal, and this largely comes down to the float of the CS2 weapon skin. But more on that later.
We then have Field-Tested, which is typically the last CS2 weapon skin wear before a skin starts to look quite damaged. Field-Tested skins can still be visibly undamaged, however, the colours will not be as vibrant as the previous conditions.
The final two CS2 weapon wears are Battle-Scarred and Well-Worn. Battle-Scarred and Well-Worn CS2 skins will often look very damaged, with a lot of the design of the skin missing due to scratching.
In order, the CS2 weapon wears are as follows:
CS2 weapon float is a factor that you will need to consider when opening CS2 cases, especially if you are opening them with specific skins in mind.
The float of a CS2 skin can effect certain elements of the design, including how worn the skin may be.
For example, a high float Field-Tested skin may have very little visible damage to the skin, however, a low float Field-Tested skin may be more worn than a Well-Worn, or even Battle-Scarred version.
For other skins, such as Doppler, Fade, or Case Hardened skins such as the ones found on many knives within the game, certain floats have been attributed particular names to give the skin an extra level of specification.
One you may have heard of is a Blue Gem Case Hardened skin. These skins feature a lot more blue on their gradient than other comparable Case Hardened skins.
Float is therefore something that can massively impact the sale price of a skin, especially when you begin to factor in items such as Blue Gems.
This can even be true on the opposite end of the spectrum, especially with guns such as the AWP Asiimov. Lower float Asiimov's are more expensive because players like the black scope that comes with more worn version of the skin.
Unfortunately, there is very little we can do in terms of analysing the CS2 case drop rates of low or high float skins, as this is incredibly random beyond the CS2 case percentages of the weapon rarity.
Now that you understand how skins in CS2 work in terms of wear and float, the final thing to understand before looking at CS2 case odds is CS2 weapon rarity.
Understanding the rarity and classification of CS2 skins will be key to figuring out the odds and probability of unboxing these rare CS2 skins, as well as which are the best CS2 cases to open if you are hoping for a return on your investment.
CS2 weapon skins come in four different rarities. From most rare to least, here are the names of those CS2 skin classifications:
Additionally, there is one more skin rarity to consider when opening CS2 cases, the Exceedingly Rare Special Item.
Exceedingly Rare Special Items are the weapon skins within CS2 cases that are the most rare, and therefore, many players will never unbox one of them.
These skins are exclusively Gloves and Knives, so, if you ever want to unbox one of these, you'll need to look out for the gold in the unboxing screen.
Okay, so we've looked at CS2 weapon skin rarity, CS2 skin floats, and CS2 skin wear, so now it is finally time to look at CS2 case odds, probability, and drop rates.
Although it may be obvious at this point, the rarity of CS2 skins within cases scales dramatically depending on how rare the skin is.
The rarity of unboxing these skins is as follows:
As you can see, this means that unboxing knives, gloves, or even rare skins from CS2 cases is incredibly unlikely. In fact, the chance of unboxing an Exceedingly Rare Special item from a CS2 case is one for every 385 cases opened.
Just remember, that is only a probability, so it could just as easily be 500, 1,000, or even 5,000 cases opened and could never unbox an Exceedingly Rare Special item.
In conclusion, the chance and probability of unboxing a rare skin from a CS2 case is exceedingly low and therefore, opening cases is not something that should be done as a money making exercise.
Opening cases in CS2 is a form of gambling, and you should always gamble responsibly. While opening a rare item in a CS2 case is a thrill, it may never happen, so always be wise when spending your money to open cases.
Check out the following CS2 guides below:
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