When it comes to roster stability, fnatic’s may as well have been built on top of the San Andreas fault. A team that for the last few years have gone through constant shake-ups based on the slightest of tremors, until very recently, it seemed they had moved away from that era of chopping and changing.
Their recent lineup, created just before ESL Pro League Season 16, originally showed a lot of promise. Reaching playoffs at Pro League, mezii, roeJ, KRIMZ, nicoodoz, and FASHR, while not groundbreaking, appeared to be a roster that could at least occasionally challenge for trophies. And realistically, that was the best the organisation could hope for.
This feeling was only furthered when at their first Major together, IEM Rio 2022, the team made the Champions Stage before falling to the eventual winners of the event, Outsiders. A huge success, at the time, it showed growth from the team and the ability for them to go deep in the tournaments that really mattered.
In mezii, they had a leader who, while new to the job, was slowly beginning to build up results against meaningful teams, and on top of that, he could do so while being one of the best fragging leaders in the world.
Under him was KRIMZ, a stable, consistent figure straight out of the organisation’s deep-rooted Swedish history and successful lineups of old; roeJ and FASHR, two aggressive players who had performed well in teams lower down the chain and who deserved their shot at the big leagues; and nicoodoz, a young, Danish AWPer who alongside roeJ had defied the odds and made the playoffs of a Major with Copenhagen Flames.
A roster that was seemingly consistently top ten and capable of achieving everything the organisation had set out for them to do, where did it all go wrong? And why are we now coming into an IEM Cologne tournament in which changes have been made by fnatic once more?
In short, fnatic suffered from their own success in the early days of their roster. Having established the ability to reach the playoffs at the only two big events they played in 2022, that became the expected norm, something that in the incredibly competitive modern era, isn’t achievable for a team with no truly great players like a s1mple, ZywOo, or sh1ro.
An expected norm that was only exacerbated by the team going on to win the only other event they played that year, the Elisa Masters Espoo, they had simply built up too much of a reputation too early. And it was far more than they could handle.
2023 saw fnatic begin to establish a more realistic expectation for themselves. Eliminated at IEM Katowice in 9th-12th by Complexity, they failed to reach the playoffs of an event for the first time, and given that they also lost to OG at the event, cracks were beginning to show in places they hadn’t before.
This was followed up by elimination from a CCT tournament by Let Us Cook, a mix team whose only claim to fame was that they featured former Virtus.pro favourites, snax and byali. Well, that and the fact they beat fnatic in a CCT.
Then it was the time for ESL Pro League Season 17, and while they made the playoffs, they did so only just. The third team to qualify from their group, they were knocked out by FURIA in their very next game. Dropping maps in all of their wins bar one, especially to teams like IHC and Eternal Fire, only furthered the theory that fnatic’s early form had placed them too high up the food chain.
BLAST Premier Spring Showdown saw the team eliminated in last place, knocked out 2-1 by Polish Squadron 9INE and denied the opportunity to appear in Washington D.C. at BLAST Premier Spring Final.
It would be amiss to say that at this point all hope was lost. There was still a Major to be played, and fnatic promised another strong showing as they became the second team to qualify from their RMR with a clean 3-0 record. Sure, they played far easier teams than the other 3-0 team, NAVI, and they did then go on and fail to reach playoffs at IEM Rio 2023 thanks to another loss versus OG, but the Major was here, and that’s the one that everyone cares about.
It’s often said that teams who qualify to the Major with a worse RMR record are at an advantage. Having to play in the Challengers Stage, they come against the bigger teams warmed up, already used to the environment in which they are playing, and the teams who start life at the event in the Legends Stage struggle as a result of this.
At this point clearly nothing more than a mid tier one team, it’s something fnatic would experience, and despite winning their opening game against former rivals NIP, losing their following two games against Monte and GamerLegion made their ring rust clear. Sure, they would then beat G2, but G2 were suffering under the weight of pressure they could not get past. NiKo was Atlas holding up the sky, and fnatic were there to turn that sky dark and stormy.
An impressive victory, at that point with a 2-2 record, everyone expected them to follow it up with qualification to yet another Champions Stage. Set to face off against Into the Breach for that opportunity, they would be the vast favourites in a match they simply couldn’t lose.
As it happened, they would lose to ITB. A game that finished 2-1 in favour of the underdogs, maybe it was the pressure that got to them, maybe it was the reality fnatic would have to face with the players in their roster, it could even have been the over performance on display from ITB, perhaps even a combination of the three. The fact is though, considering who fnatic lost to, this was a defeat that couldn’t be left unchecked, especially when they bombed out of the subsequent IEM Dallas.
A larger sample size had exposed too many worries for fnatic. mezii wasn’t an exceptional leader, although he could well be an exceptional fragger if he wasn’t burdened by his role as captain. As for FASHR and nicoodoz, the duo were far too inconsistent for tier one, an issue especially true for nicoodoz in his role as the team’s AWPer.
Changes had to be made, and both FASHR and nicoodoz were removed from the lineup with very little criticism from outside figures. While each had shown flashes of brilliance, neither had truly settled in tier one, and fnatic were never going to be as good as in their early stages with the two of them sticking around.
The first replacement, dexter, came from MOUZ, a team he had just been removed from thanks to his own disappointing result at the BLAST.tv Paris Major. The former captain of that team, he had been burdened with similar issues of inconsistency as mezii before him.
Arriving to take over the reigns as in-game leader, while his results with MOUZ were up and down, he does come in with vastly more experience than mezii has. A leader who knows how to get results in tier one, the team doesn’t suffer in any way from his inclusion. In fact, it probably gets better, as now mezii will be freed up to be the star this roster so sorely needs. On top of that, as the leader, there’s no issue with dexter fragging at a similar capacity to FASHR either.
The second new arrival comes with a bigger question mark. Coming out of a dying French scene, afro has enjoyed great individual success with both HEET and LDLC. A strong AWPer down in tier two who is admired by tier one AWPers such as device, he could easily become the star that nicoodoz promised to be a year ago.
Unfortunately, it isn’t always that simple. Aggressive AWPers often shine down in tier two, capable of taking more fights and being afforded a re-peek, they are given the capacity to duel in ways tier one doesn’t allow, and that can be a hard obstacle to overcome.
nicoodoz couldn’t do it, and dexter’s former MOUZ AWPer torzsi has also struggled, so why will afro be any different?
In short, it comes down to experience. At 24 years of age, afro has years on both torzsi and nicoodoz, and considering the amount of game time that can come with, his experience of playing the array of playstyles in tier two will aid him in his development in tier one.
Whichever way you look at it, these two arrivals are a gamble. dexter had bright moments with MOUZ, but overall, especially given the talent he possessed at times, failed to impress. afro has shone at lower levels, but for AWPers, the leap to tier one is greater than any other role. That being said, with a roster clearly failing like their previous one, you can’t just sit back and watch idly, especially when you’re an organisation with such a rich history like fnatic. It’s a gamble, but it’s a solid gamble, and one that should see them improve in no time.
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