NAVI: The team needs to escape their post-Major rut - Hugo's Spring Final predictions

There’s nothing like winning a Major in Counter-Strike.

There are tournaments that will see a player’s name etched in history, but no history will be remembered with more intensity than the Major winners - and that’s why everyone dreams of winning one.

However, they likely don’t dream about what comes next.

For NAVI, their unexpected win at the PGL Major Copenhagen has been followed by a run of disappointing results. At ESL Pro League Season 19 they were dumped out by FaZe, the team they beat in the Major final, in the round of 12 and at IEM Dallas they failed to even reach the playoffs following losses to Spirit and HEROIC.

There’s no doubt as to whether NAVI are an elite team in CS, Hugo has them ranked as the fourth-best team heading into Spring Final, but with them now in an apparent tough run of form, will they be disappointed when they arrive in London?

Photo: Stephanie Lindgren

Post-Major blues

Post-Major dips aren’t exactly unusual, especially when a dark horse wins one as NAVI did, but is this truly a dip as people are saying it is?

First, let’s look at the games they have lost:

NAVI beat FlyQuest comfortably in their opening match at Pro League, with the maps ending 13-5, 13-6. FlyQuest is a team they should always be expected to beat, but the Australians impressed in Malta, so we’ll give NAVI a little extra credit for it.

Next, they faced BIG. BIG are a hard team to gauge given that they still have relatively limited time on LAN since the additions of JDC and syrsoN, but a 2-1 victory with two comfortable map wins for NAVI did the job. Again, this is solid.

The final Group Stage game NAVI played was against Complexity, a team who were in strong form during the event and went on to beat Virtus.pro in the playoffs before taking a map off the eventual champions MOUZ in the semi-finals.

NAVI would fall 2-1 to the Americans, but given that the maps were all somewhat close and it being an upper bracket final that exists solely for seeding, we’ll let them off - especially because Complexity were playing with a point to prove.

With NAVI entering the playoffs in the round of 12, they would be set to face off against FaZe in what would be a rematch of their Major final just weeks prior.

Photo: Michal Konkol

As you can see from this interview, in which rain told HLTV “If we beat NAVI ten more times in a row, I’ll let the Major go”, this match meant something to FaZe. They wouldn’t be happy letting another series slip against NAVI, and given how strong they have been in CS2, it’s fair to say that NAVI were the underdogs regardless.

We then move on to Dallas, where NAVI started strong by picking up a win against BIG. It was a solid win, no notes.

However, that victory meant that they would face off against Team Spirit. Spirit are one of the most dangerous teams in Counter-Strike and have only lost three matches on LAN this year with their full lineup. Are we really going to criticise NAVI, one of the teams who have looked the strongest against the beast from the East, for getting donked?

You might, but we won’t.

The final match NAVI have played since their Major win was against HEROIC, who were playing with nicoodoz as a stand-in. NAVI lost this series 2-0 and looked limp as they did so.

This one we won’t excuse.

Photo: Michal Konkol

Buy the dip

Bar that loss to HEROIC, the results really aren’t as bad as people are making them out to be - they just look so on paper.

But what about the form of the individuals? Here is where we see something slightly more worrying.

There are some positives here. iM performing to a much higher standard than we’ve become accustomed to since joining NAVI is very welcome. b1t is also playing marginally better than he was before, and an in-form b1t is incredibly dangerous.

However, NAVI will fall apart without jL and w0nderful playing at their peak levels. A large part of the reason as to why NAVI were able to win the Major was due to their ability in late-round situations, especially jL’s.

Photo: Michal Konkol

Acting as the team’s aggressive lurker, jL’s impact on rounds was incredible during the Major as he claimed the MVP award, but this drop-off is something NAVI can’t sustain as they now have a huge hole within their playstyle.

Likewise, w0nderful’s dip in form is something that needs to be addressed, and fast. The teams that NAVI are contending with all have star AWPers, and NAVI will need the same level from their own sniper.

That being said, it’s impossible to see a world in which these players don’t return to their normal levels soon. They’re both simply too talented not to, it’s just a question of how long it will take. If it takes too long, there’s a chance it’s one of their heads on the chopping block - and B1ad3 has already alluded to the fact that they won’t hesitate to make changes if he feels it’s necessary.

It may seem like NAVI’s Major win was a massive fluke, but people say the same about Cloud9’s. In truth, they were actually a dark horse to win the competition, and therefore it’s to be expected that they won’t always be up there challenging for trophies.

Photo: Michal Konkol

But, and this is a big but, when NAVI turn up at an event, and we mean really turn up like they did in Copenhagen, they will be close to unstoppable. A force of nature with incredible aimers and as much brains behind that brawn as any team in the world, they can win any event in their sights.

They’ve done it before, and Spring Final might just be the time that they do it again.